Mortgage Market News In Review
DAILY MORTGAGE RATE LOCK ADVICE
November 22, 2010, 8:30 PST
Lock Advice is Updated Several Times Daily
Mortgage Rate lock Advice for locks within 3 days: LOCK
Points based on (FNMA 30 Yr – 3.50%) Mortgage Backed Securities are down 0.20 point. It appears that rates are on their way up – lock on any market improvement.
Long Term Mortgage Rate Lock or Float Advice: LOCK
The bond market is seen now as the least desirable investment compared to equities and commodities. The Fed’s continual comments that the inflation rate is too low have finally flipped out investors and traders.
- 30 Year Fixed National Average 4.17%
- Mortgage Back Securities (FNMA 30 Yr 3.5%) 98.50
- 10 Year Treasury Index 2.88%, down 0.02%
- DJI Stocks Currently $11,120.42, Down -83.13, -0.74%
- Asia & Europe Indexes Down -0.902%
- Nymex Crude Oil Currently $80.96 Down $1.02
MORTGAGE MARKET NEWS IN REVIEW
Monday, 11/22/2010
In the wake of the Irish bailout, a quiet financial news day is expected with only the two year Treasury auction scheduled at 1:00 Eastern.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.250%, Point 0.000, APR 4.326%
Friday, 11/19/2010
No data is scheduled today that could effect mortgage rates; interest rate markets opened quietly this morning for a welcome change after the high volatility this week.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.250%, Point 0.375, APR 4.336%
Thursday, 11/18/2010
The Labor Department reported this morning that jobless claims rose 2,000 to 439,000. The previous week’s figures were revised up 2,000 to 437,000. Those don’t sound like good numbers but, some economists are starting to smell a turn in the job situation which is being touted as the reason for this morning’s sharp stock rise.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.125%, Point 0.750, APR 4.287%
Wednesday, 11/17/2010
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), on a seasonally adjusted basis, increased 0.2 percent in October after increasing 0.1 percent in September.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.125%, Point 0.875, APR 4.253%
Tuesday, 11/16/2010
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for finished goods increased by 0.4% in October, seasonally adjusted, much less than the consensus estimate of 0.8%
Industrial production was unchanged in October after having falling 0.2 percent in September.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000%, Point 1.250, APR 4.203%
Monday, 11/15/2010
The U.S. Census Bureau announced Monday that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October increased 1.2 percent.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000%, Point 1.125, APR 4.147%
Friday, 11/12/2010,
No news is scheduled that will effect mortgage rates today.
Thursday, 11/11/2010 – Veterans Day
Bond Markets are closed and stock markets remain open on the day we honor our Veterans.
Wednesday, 11/10/2010
Jobless claims decreased 24,000 to 435,000 In the week ending Nov. 6 according to the Department of Labor Weekly Unemployment Report.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000%, Point 0.375, APR 4.064%
Tuesday, 11/09/2010,
Little news today effected mortgage rates
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000%, Point 0.250, APR 4.073%
Monday, 11/8/2010
The Three Year Note Auction seemed to have little effect on rates today.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000%, Point 0.125, APR 4.076%
Friday, 11/5/2010,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in October and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000%, Point 0.125, APR 4.076%
Thursday, 11/4/2101
Weekly Unemployment Claims: The number of Americans filing unemployment claims for the first time rose more than expected last week according to a labor department report released early today.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000%, Rebate 0.125, APR 4.041%
Wednesday, 11/3/2010
FMOC Report: Overall, the Fed is in a holding pattern with recent developments in Europe and a soft recovery in the U.S. leaving little other option for now.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000% Point 0.000, APR 4.052%
Tuesday, November 2,
No economic news is scheduled today that could effect Mortgage Rates.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000% Point 0.125, APR 4.062%
Monday, November 1,
Construction spending in September increased 5%.
September Personal income fell 0.1%, the first monthly decline since July 2009.
Personal Spending rose 0.2%, below the consensus expectation of 0.4% growth.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000% Point 0.879, APR 4.126%
Friday, October 29,
Chicago purchasing Managers Index, improved to 60.6 from 60.4 in Sept.
Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was +2.0% besting Q2 at +1.7%.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000% Point 0.250, APR 4.076%
Thursday, October 28,
Unemployment claims for the week ending Oct. 23, was 434,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 455,000.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000% Point 0.500, APR 4.092%
Wednesday, October 27
The Commerce Department says new home sales in September grew 6.6 percent from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 307,000.
The Commerce Department reported orders for durable goods rose 3.3 percent last month.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000% Point 0.500, APR 4.092%
Tuesday October 26,
So who do you want to believe?
According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index released today, U.S. house prices rose 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from July to August.
Conversely, according to Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index, prices of previously owned single-family homes fell 0.2% in August compared with July,.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 3.875% Point 0.625, APR 3.977%.
Monday, October 25
Sales of existing homes rose in September by the most on record, a sign cheaper borrowing costs are helping stabilize an industry that’s battling the headwinds of foreclosures and joblessness.
Thursday, October 21,
Weekly jobless claims report; down 23K to 452K
Tuesday, October 19,
Sept housing starts were better than expected and new permits were worse than expected.
Monday, October 18,
Sept industrial production, expected to increase 0.2%, fell 0.2%
NAHB housing market index is unchanged from Sept
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 3.875% Point 0.500, APR 3.898%.
Thursday, October 14,
Weekly Jobless Claims Up 13,000.
September report on Producer Prices shows no sign of deflation, but rather an ongoing rise in prices.
Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 3.875% Point 0.875, APR 3.998%
Tuesday, October 12,
Do the banks really own the foreclosed homes they are trying to sell?
This video does a good job of explaining the situation. Click to See
Friday, October 8,
The number of unemployed persons, at 14.8 million, was essentially unchanged in September, and the unemployment rate held at 9.6 percent.
Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 3.875% Point 0.75, APR 3.987%
Thursday, October 7,
Thursday’s data indicated new U.S. claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest in nearly three months
Fed stated in August, total consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 1-3/4 percent.
Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 3.875% Point 0.75, APR 3.998%
Wednesday, October 6,
There were no reports scheduled today that could effect mortgage rates
Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 3.875% Point 1.000, APR 4.013%
Tuesday, October 5,
The ISM services index for September beat expectations, coming in at 53.2 vs. 51.8 expected and helped boost stocks. The ISM Services report attempts to gauge how the service sector of the US economy is doing.
Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 3.875% Point 1.125, APR 4.024%
Monday, October 4,
Effective for FHA case number ordered from today forward, FHA changed their Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP) to 0.90% of the loan amount and Up Front Mortgage Insurance Premium (UFMIP) is now1.000% of the loan amount
Pending home sales increased for the second consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Friday, October 1,
The Commerce Department reported that Incomes grew faster than spending in August, pushing up the nation’s personal savings rate,
Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 4.000% Point 0.625, APR 4.108%
Thursday, September 30,
Weekly Jobless Claims: The number of people who filed initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 16,000 to 453,000 in the latest week
The ISM-Chicago’s purchasing managers index climbed to 60.4% in September from 56.7% in August,
Wednesday, September 29,
Auction Prices for 5 and 7 year treasuries were little changed today.
Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 4.000% Point 0.875, APR 4.129%
Tuesday, September 28,
Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed that home prices declined 0.1 percent in July from June.
The Conference Board said September consumer confidence fell sharply from August and was well below forecasts.
Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 4.000% Point 0.750, APR 4.118%
Friday, September 24,
New Orders for Durable Goods fell 1.3% in July.
Sales of new homes remained unchanged at a record low in August
Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 4.000% Point 0.75, APR 4.139%
Thursday, September 23
New claims for unemployment benefits rose 12,000 to 465,000 last week,
Sales of existing homes rose 7.6% in August,
Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 4.000% Point 0.875, APR 4.175%
Wednesday, September 22
The MBA mortgage purchase applications index fell 3.3% to 177.6.
Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 4.000% Point 1.125, APR 4.171%
Tuesday, September 21,
Housing starts increased more than expected in August to their highest level in four months and permits for future home construction also rose. Typically good economic news is bad news for mortgage rates but today the good news was overshadowed by the fed’s concern of under inflation and rates dropped..
Monday, September 20
No economic news is scheduled that could effect mortgage rates.
Friday September 17,
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis
Thursday, September 16,
More progress on the labor front, as initial jobless claims fell 3,000 to 450,000 and continuing claims dropped 84,000 to 4.49 million last week. Mortgage rates rose on the news but settled back once it was digested.
Wednesday, September 15,
Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in August which was good news for the economy and not so good for mortgage rates.
Tuesday, September 14,
Monthly Retail Sales increased 0.4 percent over July
Friday, September 10,
Thursday MBS prices (FNMA 30 Yr, 4.0%) closed below their 20 day moving average and the move was confirmed today. A confirmed move across the 20 day moving average almost always indicates a market turn, in this case higher rates.
Thursday, September 9,
Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, down 27K to 451K against expectations of a slight 2K decline; last week’s claims were revised up, from 472K to 478K. Good economic news is generally bad news for mortgage rates.
Wednesday, September 8,
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® which had declined in July, improved moderately in August.
Today’s best Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock:
4.000% 1.25 point, APR 4.192%
Tuesday, September 7,
3 Year Treasury Note yield came as expected with a yield of 0.79%
- Today’s best Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock:
4.000% 1.125 point, APR 4.182%
Friday, September 3,
MBS prices dropped sharply causing mortgage rates to jump this morning after the August employment report showed that employers cut fewer jobs than economists were expecting and added more private-sector jobs than forecast.
- Today’s best Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock:
4.000% 1.375 point, APR 4.214%
Thursday, September 2,
Much news this morning that effected Mortgage Rate Lock Advice
- Pending home sales rise 5.2 percent in July.
- The productivity of American businesses fell a revised 1.8% in the second quarter, the biggest drop in almost four years and twice as much as the government initially reported,
- Weekly Jobless Claims were better than expected.
- Today’s best Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock:
4.000% 1.250 point, APR 4.193%
Wednesday, September 1,
U.S. construction spending fell more than expected in July to its lowest rate in 10 years,
Manufacturing in the U.S. expanded at a faster pace than the August forecast, signaling the industry that led the recovery will keep it from faltering. The good news boosted mortgage rates and stock prices.
- Today’s Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock:
4.000% 1.125 point, APR 4.183%
Tuesday, August 31,
Consumer confidence rose to 53.5 in August, up from 51.0 in July
- Today’s Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock:
4.000% Point 0.625, APR 4.040%
Monday, August 30,
Personal income and Personal Spending came in close to expectations so their effect on mortgage rates will be nil.
Friday, August 27,
This morning, second quarter GDP was revised up from the consensus forecast of 1.4% to 1.6% from the first 2.4% amount, MBS markets tumbled on the news.
Thursday, August 26
This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 473K, below the consensus forecast of 485K. Once again weak economic data is helping today’s mortgage rates.
Wednesday, August 25,
July Durable Orders rose 0.3%, far below the consensus forecast of 2.5% and the weaker than expected economic data is helping MBS markets this morning. .
Tuesday, August 24,
Existing Home Sales are much lower than expected and the report is hurting stocks and helping mortgage rates this morning.
Monday, August 23,
No economic news is scheduled that will effect mortgage rates.
Friday, August 20,
There is no economic news scheduled that will effect mortgage rates.
MBS Prices, converted to Points, closed up 0.16 point for the week.
Thursday, August 19,
Jobless claims increased again and the August Philly Fed
business index confirmed that the economic recovery has stalled. Today’s poor economic news helped Mortgage Rates.
Tuesday, August 17
Housing Starts 546K, 555K was expected
PPI 0.2%, 0.2% was expected
Core PPI 0.3%, expected 0.1%
Monday, August 16,
The Empire State index came in a little lower than expected
Friday, August 13
Lots of news today that could have effected Mortgage Rates but there were no surprises.
Core CPI, Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex-Auto all came in close to expectations, Consumer Sentiment also came in close to expectations.
Thursday, August 12,
The Jobless Claims average was up again, higher than expected.
Wednesday August 11
The Trade Deficit was larger than expected which is bad news for the economy and good new for mortgage rates.
Tuesday, August 10,
Productivity is down almost 1% when it was expected to be up 1% without much effect on mortgage rates.
Friday, August 6,
Unemployment Rate came in at 9.5% as expected.
July Non-Farm Payrolls fall more than expected which accounts for stocks and mortgage rates being down today.
Thursday, August 5
FHA Set To Increase Annual Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP) from 0.55% to 1.55%
Congress passed bill and Obama is expected to sign. FHA Commissioner Dave Stevens said said he will use the new authority to raise the annual FHA premium (MIP) to around 0.90% and lower UFMIP to around 1.00%, following an increase in UFMIP to 2.25% from 1.75% earlier this year.
Jobless claims came in at 479k and higher than expected. The news seems to be helping mortgage rates so far this morning.
Tuesday, August 3
Personal Income came in a little lower than expected.
Pending Home Sales Index June improved to -2.6% from -30.0%
Factory Orders improved slightly from -1.4 to -1.2
Monday, August 2
The ISM Index indicated manufacturing improved more than expected.
Construction Spending indicates improved new construction.
Good news for the stock market and not so good for mortgage rates.
Friday, July 30
Advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 2.4% about as expected.
Consumer Sentiment is 37.8% a little better than the expected 37.5%
Chicago PMI is 62.3 and better than the expected 56.0.
Thursday, July 29
Jobless claims were 3,000 less than expected.
Our best 30 year Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock: 4.25%, 0.125 point, 4.317% APR
Wednesday, July 28
June Durable Orders declined -1.0% from May,
Our best 30 year Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock: 4.25%, 0.125 point, 4.317% APR
Tuesday, July 27
Consumer Confidence report showed it slightly lower than expected.
Tuesday’s best 30 year Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock: 4.25%, 0.375 point, 4.339% APR
Monday, July 26
New Home Sales report shows sales are up 24%.
Monday’s best 30 year Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock: 4.25%, 0.375 point, 4.362% APR
Friday, July 23
No economic data is scheduled today that would affect mortgage rates.
Thursday July 22
Jobless Claims were 464k, higher than the expected 450k..
June Existing Home Sales fell 5% to 5.37M,
Wednesday, July 21
No economic data will be released today. Fed Chief Bernanke will deliver the semi-annual testimony to Congress at 2:00 PM ET
Tuesday July 20,
Housing Starts came in at 549k, below expectations
Thursday, July 15,
Today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) is -0.5%, -0.1% was expected
Core PPI came in as predicted
Jobless Claims came in at 429K where 450k was expected
Wednesday, July 14
Import Prices ex-oil were down
Retail Sales are down more than expected
Tuesday, July 13
Trade Balance came in lower than expected .
Friday, July 9
No economic date is scheduled today that could affect mortgage rates.
Thursday, July 8
Jobless claims were down 18,000 and slightly lower than expected. The good news pushed mortgage rates up a bit during the day.
Friday, July 2
The economy lost 125,000 jobs in June, which was close to expectations. The private sector added 83,000 jobs and 225,000 census workers lost their temporary work.
Thursday, July 1
Jobless claims came in higher than expected.
Construction Spending and Pending Home Sales were less than expected.
ISM Index was also less than anticipated.
Typically, poor economic news is good for mortgage rates.
Wednesday, June 30
Chicago PMI came in at 59.1 as expected and indicates an expanding economy.
Tuesday, June 29,
Consumer Confidence was lower than expected.
The April Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed a rise of 0.8% from March, the first monthly increase since September.
Monday, June 28
Personal Income came in close to expectations.
MBS prices closed up 16/32 and many lenders improved their mortgage rates midday.
Friday, June 25
Consumer Sentiment rose to the highest level since January 2008.
Thursday, June 24
Durable Orders were -1.1% when they ware expected to be 2.8%
Jobless Claims improved slightly.
Wednesday, June 23
New Home Sales dropped 33% from April, far below the consensus.
The Fed made no change in the fed funds rate and Mortgage rates showed little reaction.
Tuesday, June 22
Existing Home Sales came in at 5.66M which was lower than expected.
Thursday, June 17
CPI inflation came in close to expectations with almost no effect on mortgage rates..
Wednesday, June 16
Lots of news this morning and, so far, it has not significantly impacted mortgage rates.
- May PPI fell -0.3% from April due to a decline in energy prices
- PPI was 5.3% higher than one year ago
- Core PPI was 1.3% higher than one year ago.
- May Housing Starts fell 10% to 593K.
- Building Permits declined 6% to 574K, the lowest level in a year
- The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose 7%, while the refinancing activity index increased by 21%
Tuesday, June 15
The Empire State index came in close to expectations
Friday, June 11
MBS prices jumped when Retail Sales came in lower than expected, lowering mortgage rates slightly at opening.
Thursday, June 10
Jobless claims came in at near expectations.
MBS prices dropped 25/32 causing several lenders to increase their mortgage rates mid day.
Friday, June 4
May Employment report showed a 431K job increase, which was lower than expected
Thursday, June 3
Lots of news that had no real effect on mortgage rates:
- Jobless Claims came in close to expectations.
- First quarter productivity was revised lower to 2.8% from 3.6%
- The Fed’s Lockhart said the Fed may have to begin hiking rates even while unemployment is considerably higher than before the recession.
- Factory Orders were 1.2, close to expectations
- ISM Services Index, 55.4 as predicted
Wednesday, June 2
April Pending Home Sales rose 6%, which was higher than expected.
Tuesday, June 1
Construction spending came in stronger than expected
Friday, May 28
Today’s economic data was close to expectations and had little impact on mortgage rates today.
The Chicago PMI manufacturing index fell to 59.7.
April Personal Income rose 0.4%.
The Core PCE price index, the Fed’s inflation measure, increased at a low 1.2% annual rate.
Thursday, May 27
Today’s mortgage rates are being hammered by the strong stock market. Jobless Claims and GDP came in close to expectations and had little impact.
Wednesday, May 26
Durable Orders exceeded the consensus.
April New Home Sales rose to an annual rate of 504K units, way above the consensus forecast of 425K, and the highest level since May 2008.
Tuesday, May 25
Tensions between North and South Korea have caused money to fly to safety. from stocks to bonds which helps mortgage rates.
Consumer Confidence came in at 63.3, above the consensus forecast of 58.5 which helped Stocks recover from down almost 300 earlier in the day.
Monday, May 24
Existing Home Sales were 5.77M, higher than the consensus of 5.65M. The news did not effect mortgage rates.
Friday, May 21
No economic reports are scheduled today so mortgage rates will be primarily driven by the stock market. DJI has recovered from down 148.73 shortly after the opening bell.
Thursday, May 20
Jobless claims higher than expected. Stock market weakness is pushing Mortgage Rates down this morning.
Oil prices fell as low as $65 per barrel, reaching the lowest level since July 2009.
Wednesday, May 19
CPI inflation was very close to expectations at low levels.
The FOMC Minutes showed expectations for stronger economic growth.
Tuesday, May 18
Mixed Producer Price Index (PPI) and slightly increased Housing Starts which initially had little effect on MBS. Later, the stock market turned negative, which lifted MBS markets and lowered rates.
Monday, May 17,
The Empire State index fell short of the consensus forecast
Friday, May 14
Retail Sales came in close to expectations
Thursday, May 13
Weekly Jobless Claims at 444K, close to the consensus forecast of 440K.
Demand was close to average for the 30-yr auction.
Wednesday, May 12
The March Trade Deficit rose to $40.4 billion, which was a little higher than the consensus forecast.
Tuesday, May 11
Demand was stronger than average for the 3-yr auction,
Monday, May 10
The big news that rocketed stocks through the roof to close up $404 is the European Union will make $1 trillion available to support Greece and other European Union members experiencing economic troubles.
Friday, May 7
The economy added 290K jobs, above the consensus of 190K, while the Unemployment Rate rose to 9.9% from 9.7%.
Thursday, May 6
This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 444K, close to the consensus forecast of 440K.
Wednesday, May 5 – Bad news for EU is good news for US Mortgage Rates.
Early last Wednesday morning the ADP jobs estimate for April was expected at +30K and came in at +32K and March was revised by ADP from -23K to +19K. Good reports on jobs but there was no reaction to it in markets that are completely consumed with the unraveling of events in Europe and concerns that the EU may be permanently altered as the crisis of debt defaults has not been contained. All focus now is on safety to US treasuries and fears of a stock market decline which is good for Mortgage Rates. Any event that draws money from the equity markets into bonds is a good thing for US mortgage Rates. US stock markets will suffer as the euro currency falls against the dollar, investors will be leery of buying US equities as the dollar strengthening takes away buying from European and foreign investors in general.
Tuesday, May 4
March Pending Home Sales increased 5.3% from February, and were 21% higher than one year ago at this time. Home sales results seem to have little effect on Mortgage Rates.
Monday, May 3
The EU and IMF finance ministers approved the unprecedented bailout for Greece after a week that saw the country’s fiscal crisis spread to Portugal and Spain.
Other News that could effect Mortgage Rates:
- B of A agrees to cut loan amounts for underwater borrowers. National Mortgage News
- Mortgage Brokers are the cheapest conduit to bring loans to market” according to FHA Commissioner DAVID STEVENS. TBWS
