Mortgage Rate Update March 24, 2008

Where We’ve been:
Monday’s bond market has opened down sharply following an early stock rally and stronger than expected housing news. The stock markets are kicking the week off quite strong with the Dow up 212 points and the Nasdaq up 60 points– which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .500 of a discount point over Thursday’s rates.

Where We’re At:
The first report of the week came late this morning with the release of February’s Existing Home Sales. It showed a 2.8% increase in home resales last month when it was expected to show another decline. This is good news for the housing sector, but considered bad news for bonds.

Where we’re Going: The rest of the week brings us the release of six more reports for the bond market to digest. The next one is the first important data of the week when March’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is posted late in morning. This index gives us an indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Bond traders watch this data closely because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of our economy. If this report shows that confidence is falling, it would indicate that consumers are more apt to delay making large purchases. If the report reveals that confidence looks to be growing, we may see bond traders sell, pushing mortgage rates higher tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a decline from February’s reading of 75.0 to 73.4.

Forecast:
Overall, it is difficult to label one particular day as the most important of the week. I am expecting the CCI or Durable Goods Orders reports to have the biggest influence on mortgage rates, so by default we can declare tomorrow or Wednesday to be of high importance. The truth is that rather than a significant change in rates one or two days, we will most likely see a slight change several days. Accordingly, the risk of floating an interest rate this week is not as great as last week, but with a low expectation of much improvement in rates the next several days, I am holding the lock recommendations for the time being.

If rates should fall lower or we revert to a recommendation to float, you’ll find out about it here at The Property Tip. So check back and check back often!