Housing Market Update 6/24/2011

Existing Home Sales Jump Again:
Despite bad weather, U.S. home sales jumped more than expected in December. Sales of previously occupied homes soared 12.3 percent last month which far surpassed national forecasts of an increase of only 4.5%. This marks the second straight month of significant gains in sales. In November, Existing Home Sales surged 6.1%. The national median home price in December was $169,300 which was only 0.2% lower than levels a year ago. This is important to note because 36% of homes sold in December where under the “distressed” category. And even though this is a larger than normal percentage of sales, the national median home price barely moved. In fact, it actually increased in some ares such as the Midwest (+3.3%).

In other news, Housing Starts decreased from 553K to 529K. While the media has had a field day of reporting this as bad news…it is actually good news! The number one reason that the housing industry fell was over supply. And with supply levels still above where they need to be, any addition to those levels (for example by building even more homes) is not a good idea.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -54BPS from Tuesday’s open (Monday was closed due to the holiday) to Friday’s close which caused 30 year fixed rates to move higher. MBS generally trade in the opposite direction of positive economic news. And last week we had a lot of positive economic news with strong results from Existing Home Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Leading Economic Indicators and more.
What to Watch Out For This Week:

The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
Date ET Release For
25-Jan 9:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Nov
25-Jan 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jan
25-Jan 10:00 FHFA Housing Price Index Nov
26-Jan 7:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 21-Jan
26-Jan 10:00 New Home Sales Dec
26-Jan 10:30 Crude Inventories 22-Jan
26-Jan 14:15 FOMC Rate Decision Jan
27-Jan 8:30 Initial Claims 22-Jan
27-Jan 8:30 Continuing Claims 22-Jan
27-Jan 8:30 Durable Orders Dec
27-Jan 8:30 Durable Orders ex Transportation Dec
27-Jan 10:00 Pending Home Sales Nov
28-Jan 8:30 GDP-Adv. Q4
28-Jan 8:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q4
28-Jan 8:30 Employment Cost Index Q4
28-Jan 9:55 Michigan Sentiment – Final Jan

Mortgage Rate Report for Week Of 1/10/11

Demand for housing is fueled by consumer confidence levels.  And nothing impacts those levels more than how consumers feel about the job market.  We had three major releases last week that gave us a better understanding of the employment picture.

First up were the Challenger Job Cuts report.  This measures the number of layoffs announced by corporations.  They reported that layoffs decreased by 34% in December.  Next up was the ADP Private Payroll report.  They measure non-farm and non-government hiring.  This report showed a gain of 297,000 jobs in December which was one of the strongest increases on record.  Lastly, the Labor Department reported that the national Unemployment Rate declined from 9.8% to 9.4% which is the lowest reading in 1 1/2 years.

While we certainly still have a lot of ground to make up in the job market, the above news is good for housing and certainly mirrors last month’s gains in both Existing Home Sales and Pending Home Sales.

 What Happened to Rates Last Week:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) moved sideways last week but we certainly did see some big swings in mortgage rates during the middle of the week.  The very strong ADP Private Payroll data pushed mortgage rates upward on Wednesday but rates moved backed down after Friday’s Unemployment report.

What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week.  They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages.  I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:

Date	ET	Release	For
11-Jan	10:00	Wholesale Inventories	Nov
12-Jan	7:00	MBA Mortgage Purchase Index	7-Jan
12-Jan	8:30	Export Prices ex-ag.	Dec
12-Jan	8:30	Import Prices ex-oil	Dec
12-Jan	10:30	Crude Inventories	8-Jan
12-Jan	14:00	Treasury Budget	Dec
12-Jan	14:00	Fed’s Beige Book	Jan
13-Jan	8:30	Initial Claims	8-Jan
13-Jan	8:30	Continuing Claims	1-Jan
13-Jan	8:30	PPI	Dec
13-Jan	8:30	Core PPI	Dec
13-Jan	8:30	Trade Balance	Nov
14-Jan	8:30	CPI	Dec
14-Jan	8:30	Core CPI	Dec
14-Jan	8:30	Retail Sales	Dec
14-Jan	8:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Dec
14-Jan	9:15	Industrial Production	Dec
14-Jan	9:15	Capacity Utilization	Dec
14-Jan	9:55	Mich Sentiment	Jan
14-Jan	10:00	Business Inventories	Nov

Mortgage Outlook Weekly Update 12-5-10

Pending Home Sales Surge Ahead:

Pending sales of existing U.S. homes unexpectedly surged despite concerns that problems with foreclosures might curtail activity.

The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Index, which is based upon contracts that are signed but not yet closed, jumped 10.4% in October.  Economists had been expecting a decline of 0.5%. 

This strength in housing is directly reflective of the positive Consumer Sentiment levels.  Buyers are also taking advantage of great pricing levels while they can before mortgage rates rise.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:
 

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -66 basis points last week causing 30 year fixed rates to increase from the previous week.  This marks the fourth straight week of increasing mortgage rates.  This further proves that you should not listen to news reports about mortgage rates.  The U.S. government cannot and does not control mortgage rates.  These are set by an open market place of willing sellers and purchasers of MBS.  And as our economy continues to rebound, we will continue to see a longer-term trend of higher mortgage rates when compared to our artificially low mortgage rates in October.

What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week.  They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages.  I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:

Date	ET	Release	For
7-Dec	15:00	Consumer Credit	Oct
8-Dec	7:00	MBA Mortgage Applications	3-Dec
8-Dec	10:30	Crude Inventories	4-Dec
9-Dec	8:30	Initial Claims	4-Dec
9-Dec	8:30	Continuing Claims	27-Nov
9-Dec	10:00	Wholesale Inventories	Oct
10-Dec	8:30	Trade Balance	Oct
10-Dec	8:30	Export Prices ex-ag.	Nov
10-Dec	8:30	Import Prices ex-oil	Nov
10-Dec	9:55	Mich Sentiment	Dec
10-Dec	14:00	Treasury Budget	Nov
15-Nov	8:30	Retail Sales
15-Nov	10:00	Business Inventories

Weekly Mortgage Rate Update November 29, 2010

Consumer Sentiment Continues to Rise:

Consumer Sentiment plays a very large roll in housing.  Simply put, if consumers feel good about their prospects and the overall economy – they are more likely to purchase a home.  So, it is great news that the Reuters/University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose for the third consecutive month.  It came in at a revised reading of 71.6 which far outpaced the market expectations of 69.5.

Also, the national economy grew at a much faster pace than originally thought. The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter was upwardly revised from 2.0% to 2.5%.  A half point in an economy our size is a very large move upward and marks the best reading in five quarters and the third straight quarterly improvement.  Both of these reports are a big positive for housing demand.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:
 

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -34 basis points last week causing 30 year fixed rates to increase from the previous week.  This marks the third straight week of increasing mortgage rates.  This further proves that you should not listen to news reports about mortgage rates.  The U.S. government cannot and does not control mortgage rates.  These are set by an open market place of willing sellers and purchasers of MBS.  And as our economy continues to rebound, we will continue to see a longer-term trend of higher mortgage rates when compared to our artificially low mortgage rates in October.

What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week.  They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages.  I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:

Date	ET	Release	For
30-Nov	9:00	Case-Shiller 20-city Index	Sep
30-Nov	9:45	Chicago PMI	Nov
30-Nov	10:00	Consumer Confidence	Nov
1-Dec	7:00	MBA Mortgage Applications	26-Nov
1-Dec	7:30	Challenger Job Cuts (y/y)	Nov
1-Dec	8:15	ADP Employment Report	Nov
1-Dec	8:30	Productivity-Rev.	Q3
1-Dec	8:30	Unit Labor Costs	Q3
1-Dec	10:00	ISM Index	Nov
1-Dec	10:00	Construction Spending	Oct
1-Dec	10:30	Crude Inventories	27-Nov
1-Dec	14:00	Auto Sales	Nov
1-Dec	14:00	Truck Sales	Nov
1-Dec	14:00	Fed’s Beige Book	Dec
2-Dec	8:30	Continuing Claims	20-Nov
2-Dec	8:30	Initial Claims	27-Nov
2-Dec	10:00	Pending Home Sales	Oct
3-Dec	8:30	Nonfarm Payrolls	Nov
3-Dec	8:30	Nonfarm Private Payrolls	Nov
3-Dec	8:30	Unemployment Rate	Nov
3-Dec	8:30	Hourly Earnings	Nov
3-Dec	8:30	Average Workweek	Nov
3-Dec	10:00	Factory Orders	Oct
3-Dec	10:00	ISM Services	Nov

MOrtage Market Update 11-22-2010

Mortgage Deliquency Rate Falls:

The U.S. mortgage delinquency rate declined last quarter as the employment picture brightened.  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the rate of delinquency on single-family homes for the third quarter fell 0.72% from the previous quarter for a reading of of just 9.13%.

The media coverage of the housing market would lead most to assume that almost every house is in foreclosure and that most mortgages are delinquent or in foreclose.  This is far from true.  Certainly a delinquency rate of 9.13% is higher than what any banker wants to see, but it also means that  90.87% of all mortgages are paid on time.  And with businesses adding 151,000 jobs last month and Initial Jobless Claims continuing to fall, we appear to be on firmer ground.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:
 

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -59 basis points last week causing 30 year fixed rates to increase from the previous week.  This is after the prior week’s -147 basis point sell off. The Federal Reserve’s $600 billion Quantitative Easing II plan was in effect for the second straight week and the longer term bonds such as MBS are not a big fan.  MBS have sold off -122 basis points since the first day of their Treasury purchase program which has pressured mortgage rates upward.

What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week.  They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages.  I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:

Date	ET	Release	For
23-Nov	8:30	GDP – Second Estimate	Q3
23-Nov	8:30	GDP Deflator – Second Estimate	Q3
23-Nov	10:00	Existing Home Sales	Oct
23-Nov	14:00	Minutes of FOMC Meeting	3-Nov
24-Nov	7:00	MBA Mortgage Applications	19-Nov
24-Nov	8:30	Personal Income	Oct
24-Nov	8:30	Personal Spending	Oct
24-Nov	8:30	PCE Prices – Core	Oct
24-Nov	8:30	Durable Orders	Oct
24-Nov	8:30	Durable Orders -ex transportation	Oct
24-Nov	8:30	Initial Claims	20-Nov
24-Nov	8:30	Continuing Claims	13-Nov
24-Nov	9:55	Michigan Sentiment – Final	Nov
24-Nov	10:00	New Home Sales	Oct
24-Nov	10:00	FHFA Home Price Index (q/q)	Q3
24-Nov	10:30	Crude Inventories	20-Nov

Market Update November

Consumers Point to Stronger Housing:

Consumers drive the housing market. So when we see improvement in consumer behavior, it paints a prettier picture for housing.

Retail Sales rose more than expected in October to post their largest gain in seven months. The Commerce Department reported that total Retail Sales increased 1.2% which is the biggest increase since March. They also upwardly revised last month’s data.

This report follows the much better than expected Consumer Sentiment report published by Reuters/University of Michigan. They reported that their preliminary consumer sentiment index jumped to a reading of 69.3 in November compared to 67.7 the month prior, putting in on track to be the best results since June. The release beat out analysts´expectations of 69.0.

Both of these reports show that consumers are back on track and coupled with very low mortgage rates could lead to more demand in housing.

What Happened to Rates Last Week:

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -147 basis points last week causing 30 year fixed rates to increase from the previous week. The sell-off in mortgage backed securities started with much weaker than anticipated demand for the U.S. 10 year and 30 year Treasury auction. We had our second straight week of positive economic data with stronger than expected Initial Jobless Claims, Consumer Sentiment and Wholesale Inventories which also pressured MBS pricing.

What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
Date ET Release For
15-Nov 8:30 Retail Sales Oct
15-Nov 8:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Oct
15-Nov 8:30 Empire Manufacturing Index Nov
15-Nov 10:00 Business Inventories Sep
16-Nov 8:30 PPI Oct
16-Nov 8:30 Core PPI Oct
16-Nov 9:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Aug
16-Nov 9:15 Industrial Production Oct
16-Nov 9:15 Capacity Utilization Oct
16-Nov 10:00 NAHB Market Housing Index Nov
17-Nov 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 12-Nov
17-Nov 8:30 CPI Oct
17-Nov 8:30 Core CPI Oct
17-Nov 8:30 Housing Starts Oct
17-Nov 8:30 Building Permits Oct
17-Nov 10:30 Crude Inventories 13-Nov
18-Nov 8:30 Initial Claims 13-Nov
18-Nov 8:30 Continuing Claims 6-Nov
18-Nov 10:00 Leading Indicators Oct
18-Nov 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Nov

Mortgage Market News In Review

DAILY MORTGAGE RATE LOCK ADVICE

November 22, 2010, 8:30 PST

Lock Advice is Updated Several Times Daily

Mortgage Rate lock Advice for locks within 3 days:  LOCK

Points based on (FNMA 30 Yr – 3.50%) Mortgage Backed Securities are down 0.20 point.  It appears that rates are on their way up – lock on any market improvement.

Long Term Mortgage Rate Lock or Float Advice:  LOCK

The bond market is seen now as the least desirable investment compared to equities and commodities. The Fed’s continual comments that the inflation rate is too low have finally flipped out investors and traders.

• 30 Year Fixed National Average 4.17%

• Mortgage Back Securities  (FNMA 30 Yr 3.5%) 98.50

• 10 Year Treasury Index 2.88%, down 0.02%

• DJI Stocks Currently $11,120.42,  Down -83.13, -0.74%

• Asia & Europe Indexes Down -0.902%

• Nymex Crude Oil Currently $80.96 Down  $1.02

 

MORTGAGE MARKET NEWS IN REVIEW

Monday, 11/22/2010

In the wake of the Irish bailout, a quiet financial news day is expected with only the two year Treasury auction scheduled at 1:00 Eastern.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.250%, Point 0.000, APR 4.326%

Friday, 11/19/2010

No data is scheduled today that could effect mortgage rates; interest rate markets opened quietly this morning for a welcome change after the high volatility this week.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.250%, Point 0.375, APR 4.336%

Thursday, 11/18/2010

The Labor Department reported this morning that jobless claims rose 2,000 to 439,000. The previous week’s figures were revised up 2,000 to 437,000. Those don’t sound like good numbers but, some economists are starting to smell a turn in the job situation which is being touted as the reason for this morning’s sharp stock rise.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.125%, Point 0.750, APR 4.287%

Wednesday, 11/17/2010

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), on a seasonally adjusted basis,  increased 0.2 percent in October after increasing 0.1 percent in September.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.125%, Point 0.875, APR 4.253%

Tuesday, 11/16/2010

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for finished goods increased by 0.4% in October, seasonally adjusted, much less than the consensus estimate of 0.8%

Industrial production was unchanged in October after having falling 0.2 percent in September.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000%, Point 1.250, APR 4.203%

Monday, 11/15/2010

The U.S. Census Bureau announced Monday that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October increased 1.2 percent.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000%, Point 1.125, APR 4.147%

Friday, 11/12/2010,

No news is scheduled that will effect mortgage rates today.

Thursday, 11/11/2010 – Veterans Day

Bond Markets are closed and stock markets remain open on the day we honor our Veterans.

Wednesday, 11/10/2010

Jobless claims decreased 24,000 to 435,000 In the week ending Nov. 6 according to the Department of Labor Weekly Unemployment Report. 

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000%, Point 0.375, APR 4.064%

Tuesday, 11/09/2010,

Little news today effected mortgage rates

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000%, Point 0.250, APR 4.073%

Monday, 11/8/2010

The Three Year Note Auction seemed to have little effect on rates today.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000%, Point 0.125, APR 4.076%

Friday, 11/5/2010,

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in October and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000%, Point 0.125, APR 4.076%

Thursday, 11/4/2101

Weekly Unemployment Claims: The number of Americans filing unemployment claims for the first time rose more than expected last week according to a labor department report released early today.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000%, Rebate 0.125, APR 4.041%

Wednesday, 11/3/2010

FMOC Report: Overall, the Fed is in a holding pattern with recent developments in Europe and a soft recovery in the U.S. leaving little other option for now.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000% Point 0.000, APR 4.052%

Tuesday, November 2,

No economic news is scheduled today that could effect Mortgage Rates.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000% Point 0.125, APR 4.062%

Monday, November 1,

Construction spending in September increased 5%.

September Personal income fell 0.1%, the first monthly decline since July 2009.

Personal Spending rose 0.2%, below the consensus expectation of 0.4% growth.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000% Point 0.879, APR 4.126%

Friday, October 29,

Chicago purchasing Managers Index, improved to 60.6 from 60.4 in Sept.

Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was +2.0% besting Q2 at +1.7%.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000% Point 0.250, APR 4.076%

Thursday, October 28,

Unemployment claims for the week ending Oct. 23, was 434,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 455,000.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000% Point 0.500, APR 4.092%

Wednesday, October 27

The Commerce Department says new home sales in September grew 6.6 percent from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 307,000.

The Commerce Department reported orders for durable goods rose 3.3 percent last month.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 4.000% Point 0.500, APR 4.092%

Tuesday October 26,

So who do you want to believe?

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index released today, U.S. house prices rose 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from July to August.

Conversely, according to Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index, prices of previously owned single-family homes fell 0.2% in August compared with July,.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 3.875% Point 0.625, APR 3.977%.

Monday, October 25

Sales of existing homes rose in September by the most on record, a sign cheaper borrowing costs are helping stabilize an industry that’s battling the headwinds of foreclosures and joblessness.

Thursday, October 21,

Weekly jobless claims report; down 23K to 452K

Tuesday, October 19,

Sept housing starts were better than expected and new permits were worse than expected.

Monday, October 18,

Sept industrial production, expected to increase 0.2%, fell 0.2%

NAHB housing market index is unchanged from Sept

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 3.875% Point 0.500, APR 3.898%.

Thursday, October 14,

Weekly Jobless Claims Up 13,000.

September report on Producer Prices shows no sign of deflation, but rather an ongoing rise in prices.

Best 30 yr Mortgage, 30 day Lock rate: 3.875% Point 0.875, APR 3.998%

Tuesday, October 12,

Do the banks really own the foreclosed homes they are trying to sell? 

This video does a good job of explaining the situation.  Click to See

Friday, October 8,

The number of unemployed persons, at 14.8 million, was essentially unchanged in September, and the unemployment rate held at 9.6 percent.

Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 3.875% Point 0.75, APR 3.987%

Thursday, October 7,

Thursday’s data indicated new U.S. claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest in nearly three months

Fed stated in August, total consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 1-3/4 percent.

Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 3.875% Point 0.75, APR 3.998%

Wednesday, October 6,

There were no reports scheduled today that could effect mortgage rates

Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 3.875% Point 1.000, APR 4.013%

Tuesday, October 5,

The ISM services index for September beat expectations, coming in at 53.2 vs. 51.8 expected and helped boost stocks.  The ISM Services report attempts to gauge how the service sector of the US economy is doing.

Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 3.875% Point 1.125, APR 4.024%  

Monday, October 4,

Effective for FHA case number ordered from today forward, FHA changed their Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP) to 0.90% of the loan amount and Up Front Mortgage Insurance Premium (UFMIP) is now1.000% of the loan amount

Pending home sales increased for the second consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Friday, October 1,

The Commerce Department reported that Incomes grew faster than spending in August, pushing up the nation’s personal savings rate,

Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 4.000% Point 0.625, APR 4.108%

Thursday, September 30,

Weekly Jobless Claims: The number of people who filed initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 16,000 to 453,000 in the latest week

The ISM-Chicago’s purchasing managers index climbed to 60.4% in September from 56.7% in August,

Wednesday, September 29,

Auction Prices for 5 and 7 year treasuries were little changed today.

Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 4.000% Point 0.875, APR 4.129%

Tuesday, September 28,

Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed that home prices declined 0.1 percent in July from June.

The Conference Board said September consumer confidence fell sharply from August and was well below forecasts.

Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 4.000% Point 0.750, APR 4.118%

Friday, September 24,

New Orders for Durable Goods fell 1.3% in July.

Sales of new homes remained unchanged at a record low in August

Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 4.000%  Point 0.75, APR 4.139%

Thursday, September 23

New claims for unemployment benefits rose 12,000 to 465,000 last week,

Sales of existing homes rose 7.6% in August,

Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 4.000%  Point 0.875, APR 4.175%

Wednesday, September 22

The MBA mortgage purchase applications index fell 3.3% to 177.6.

Best 30 day Lock rate for 30 yr Mortgage: 4.000%  Point 1.125, APR 4.171%

Tuesday, September 21,

Housing starts increased more than expected in August to their highest level in four months and permits for future home construction also rose.  Typically good economic news is bad news for mortgage rates but today the good news was overshadowed by the fed’s concern of under inflation and rates dropped..

Monday, September 20

No economic news is scheduled that could effect mortgage rates.

Friday September 17,

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis

Thursday, September 16,

More progress on the labor front, as initial jobless claims fell 3,000 to 450,000 and continuing claims dropped 84,000 to 4.49 million last week.  Mortgage rates rose on the news but settled back once it was digested.

Wednesday, September 15,

Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in August which was good news for the economy and not so good for mortgage rates.

Tuesday, September 14,

Monthly Retail Sales increased 0.4 percent over July

Friday, September 10,

Thursday MBS prices (FNMA 30 Yr, 4.0%) closed below their 20 day moving average and the move was confirmed today.  A confirmed move across the 20 day moving average almost always indicates a market turn, in this case higher rates.

Thursday, September 9,

Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, down 27K to 451K against expectations of a slight 2K decline; last week’s claims were revised up, from 472K to 478K.   Good economic news is generally bad news for mortgage rates.

Wednesday, September 8,

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® which had declined in July, improved moderately in August.

Today’s best Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock:

             4.000% 1.25 point, APR 4.192%

Tuesday, September 7,

3 Year Treasury Note yield came as expected with a yield of 0.79%

• Today’s best Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock:

             4.000% 1.125 point, APR 4.182%

Friday, September 3,

MBS prices dropped sharply causing mortgage rates to jump this morning after the August employment report showed that employers cut fewer jobs than economists were expecting and added more private-sector jobs than forecast.

• Today’s best Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock:

             4.000% 1.375 point, APR 4.214%

Thursday, September 2,

Much news this morning that effected Mortgage Rate Lock Advice

• Pending home sales rise 5.2 percent in July.

• The productivity of American businesses fell a revised 1.8% in the second quarter, the biggest drop in almost four years and twice as much as the government initially reported,

• Weekly Jobless Claims were better than expected.

• Today’s best Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock:

            4.000% 1.250 point, APR 4.193%

Wednesday, September 1,

U.S. construction spending fell more than expected in July to its lowest rate in 10 years,

Manufacturing in the U.S. expanded at a faster pace than the August forecast, signaling the industry that led the recovery will keep it from faltering.  The good news boosted mortgage rates and stock prices.

• Today’s Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock:

            4.000% 1.125 point, APR 4.183%

Tuesday, August 31,

Consumer confidence rose to 53.5 in August, up from 51.0 in July

• Today’s Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock:

            4.000%  Point 0.625, APR 4.040%

Monday, August 30,

Personal income and Personal Spending came in close to expectations so their effect on mortgage rates will be nil.

Friday, August 27,

This morning, second quarter GDP was revised up from the consensus forecast of 1.4% to 1.6% from the first 2.4% amount, MBS markets tumbled on the news.

Thursday, August 26

This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 473K, below the consensus forecast of 485K. Once again weak economic data is helping today’s mortgage rates.

Wednesday, August 25,

July Durable Orders rose 0.3%, far below the consensus forecast of 2.5% and  the weaker than expected economic data is helping MBS markets this morning. .

Tuesday, August 24,

Existing Home Sales are much lower than expected and the report is hurting stocks and helping mortgage rates this morning.

Monday, August 23,

No economic news is scheduled that will effect mortgage rates.

Friday, August 20,

There is no economic news scheduled that will effect mortgage rates.

MBS Prices, converted to Points, closed up 0.16 point for the week.

Thursday, August 19,

Jobless claims increased again and the August Philly Fed

business index confirmed that the economic recovery has stalled.  Today’s poor economic news helped Mortgage Rates.

Tuesday, August 17

Housing Starts 546K,  555K was expected

PPI 0.2%, 0.2% was expected

Core PPI 0.3%, expected 0.1%

Monday, August 16,

The Empire State index came in a little lower than expected

Friday, August 13

Lots of news today that could have effected Mortgage Rates but there were no surprises.

Core CPI, Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex-Auto  all came in close to expectations, Consumer Sentiment also came in close to expectations.

Thursday, August 12,

The Jobless Claims average was up again, higher than expected.

Wednesday August 11

The Trade Deficit was larger than expected which is bad news for the economy and good new for mortgage rates.

Tuesday, August 10,

Productivity is down almost 1% when it was expected to be up 1% without much effect on mortgage rates.

Friday, August 6,

Unemployment Rate came in at 9.5% as expected.

July Non-Farm Payrolls fall more than expected which accounts for stocks and mortgage rates being down today.

Thursday, August 5

FHA Set To Increase Annual Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP) from 0.55% to 1.55%

Congress passed bill and Obama is expected to sign. FHA Commissioner Dave Stevens said said he will use the new authority to raise the annual FHA premium (MIP) to around 0.90% and lower UFMIP to around 1.00%, following an increase in UFMIP to 2.25% from 1.75% earlier this year.

Read Official HUD Notice

Jobless claims came in at 479k and higher than expected.  The news seems to be helping mortgage rates so far this morning.

Tuesday, August 3

Personal Income came in a little lower than expected.

Pending Home Sales Index June improved to -2.6% from -30.0%

Factory Orders improved slightly from -1.4 to -1.2

Monday, August 2

The ISM Index indicated manufacturing improved more than expected.

Construction Spending indicates improved new construction.

Good news for the stock market and not so good for mortgage rates.

Friday, July 30

Advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 2.4% about as expected.

Consumer Sentiment is 37.8% a little better than the expected 37.5%

Chicago PMI is 62.3 and better than the expected 56.0.

Thursday, July 29

Jobless claims were 3,000 less than expected.

Our best  30 year Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock: 4.25%, 0.125 point, 4.317% APR

Wednesday, July 28

June Durable Orders declined -1.0% from May,

Our best 30 year Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock: 4.25%, 0.125 point, 4.317% APR

Tuesday, July 27

Consumer Confidence report showed it slightly lower than expected.

Tuesday’s best  30 year Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock: 4.25%, 0.375 point, 4.339% APR

Monday, July 26

New Home Sales report shows sales are up 24%.

Monday’s best 30 year Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock: 4.25%, 0.375 point, 4.362% APR

Friday, July 23

No economic data is scheduled today that would affect mortgage rates.

Thursday July 22

Jobless Claims were 464k, higher than the expected 450k..

June Existing Home Sales fell 5% to 5.37M,

Wednesday, July 21

No economic data will be released today.  Fed Chief Bernanke will deliver the semi-annual testimony to Congress at 2:00 PM ET

Tuesday July 20,

Housing Starts came in at 549k, below expectations

Thursday, July 15,

Today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) is -0.5%, -0.1%  was expected

Core PPI  came in as predicted

Jobless Claims came in at 429K where 450k was expected

Wednesday, July 14

Import Prices ex-oil  were down

Retail Sales are down more than expected

Tuesday, July 13

Trade Balance came in lower than expected .

Friday, July 9

No economic date is scheduled today that could affect mortgage rates.

Thursday, July 8

Jobless claims were down 18,000 and slightly lower than expected.  The good news pushed mortgage rates up a bit during the day.

Friday, July 2

The economy lost 125,000 jobs in June, which was close to expectations.  The private sector added 83,000 jobs and 225,000 census workers lost their temporary work.

Thursday, July 1

Jobless claims came in higher than expected.

Construction Spending and  Pending Home Sales were less than expected.

ISM Index was also less than anticipated. 

Typically, poor economic news is good for mortgage rates.

Wednesday, June 30

Chicago PMI came in at 59.1 as expected and indicates an expanding economy.

Tuesday, June 29,

Consumer Confidence was lower than expected.

The April Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed a rise of 0.8% from March, the first monthly increase since September.

Monday, June 28

Personal Income came in close to expectations. 

MBS prices closed up 16/32 and many lenders improved their mortgage rates midday.

Friday, June 25

Consumer Sentiment rose to the highest level since January 2008.

Thursday, June 24

Durable Orders were -1.1% when they ware expected  to be 2.8%

Jobless Claims improved slightly.

Wednesday,  June 23

New Home Sales dropped 33% from April, far below the consensus.

The Fed made no change in the fed funds rate and Mortgage rates showed little reaction.

Tuesday, June 22

Existing Home Sales came in at 5.66M which was lower than expected.

Thursday, June 17

CPI inflation came in close to expectations with almost no effect on mortgage rates..

Wednesday, June 16

Lots of news this morning and, so far, it has not significantly impacted mortgage rates.

• May PPI fell -0.3% from April due to a decline in energy prices

• PPI was 5.3% higher than one year ago

• Core PPI  was 1.3% higher than one year ago.

• May Housing Starts fell 10% to 593K.

• Building Permits declined 6% to 574K, the lowest level in a year

• The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose 7%, while the refinancing activity index increased by 21%

 

Tuesday, June 15

The Empire State index came in close to expectations

Friday, June 11

MBS prices jumped  when Retail Sales came in lower than expected, lowering mortgage rates slightly at opening.

Thursday, June 10

Jobless claims came in at near expectations. 

MBS prices dropped 25/32 causing several lenders to increase their mortgage rates mid day.

Friday, June 4

May Employment report showed a 431K job increase, which was lower than expected

Thursday, June 3

Lots of news that had no real effect on mortgage rates:

• Jobless Claims came in close to expectations.

• First quarter productivity was revised lower to 2.8% from 3.6%

• The Fed’s  Lockhart said the Fed may have to begin hiking rates even while unemployment is considerably higher than before the recession.

• Factory Orders were 1.2, close to expectations

• ISM Services Index, 55.4 as predicted

 

Wednesday, June 2

April Pending Home Sales rose 6%, which was higher than expected.

Tuesday, June 1

Construction spending came in stronger than expected

Friday, May 28

Today’s economic data was close to expectations and had little impact on mortgage rates today.

The Chicago PMI manufacturing index fell to 59.7.

April Personal Income rose 0.4%.

The Core PCE price index, the Fed’s inflation measure, increased at a low 1.2% annual rate.

Thursday, May 27

Today’s mortgage rates are being hammered by the strong stock market.  Jobless Claims and GDP came in close to expectations and had little impact.

Wednesday, May 26

Durable Orders exceeded the consensus.

April New Home Sales rose to an annual rate of 504K units, way above the consensus forecast of 425K, and the highest level since May 2008.

Tuesday, May 25

Tensions between North and South Korea have caused money to fly to safety. from stocks to bonds which helps mortgage rates.

Consumer Confidence came in at 63.3, above the consensus forecast of 58.5 which helped  Stocks recover from down almost 300 earlier in the day.

Monday, May 24

Existing Home Sales were 5.77M, higher than the consensus of 5.65M.  The news did not effect mortgage rates.

Friday, May 21

No economic reports are scheduled today so mortgage rates will be primarily driven by the stock market.  DJI has recovered from down 148.73 shortly after the opening bell.

Thursday, May 20

Jobless claims higher than expected.   Stock market weakness is pushing Mortgage Rates down this morning.

Oil prices fell as low as $65 per barrel, reaching the lowest level since July 2009.

Wednesday, May 19

CPI inflation was very close to expectations at low levels.

The FOMC Minutes showed expectations for stronger economic growth.

Tuesday, May 18

Mixed Producer Price Index (PPI) and slightly increased Housing Starts which initially had little effect on MBS.   Later, the stock market  turned negative, which lifted MBS markets and lowered rates.

Monday, May 17,

The Empire State index fell short of the consensus forecast

Friday, May 14

Retail Sales came in close to expectations

Thursday, May 13

Weekly Jobless Claims at 444K, close to the consensus forecast of 440K. 

Demand was close to average for the 30-yr auction.

Wednesday, May 12

The March Trade Deficit rose to $40.4 billion, which was a little higher than the consensus forecast.

Tuesday, May 11

Demand was stronger than average for the 3-yr auction,

Monday, May 10

The big news that rocketed stocks through the roof to close up $404 is the European Union will make $1 trillion available to support Greece and other European Union members experiencing economic troubles.

Friday, May 7

The economy added 290K jobs, above the consensus of 190K, while the Unemployment Rate rose to 9.9% from 9.7%.

Thursday, May 6

This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 444K, close to the consensus forecast of 440K.

Wednesday, May 5 – Bad news for EU is good news for US Mortgage Rates.

Early last Wednesday morning the ADP jobs estimate for April was expected at +30K and came in at +32K and March was revised by ADP from -23K to +19K.  Good reports on jobs but there was no reaction to it in markets that are completely consumed with the unraveling of events in Europe and concerns that the EU may be permanently altered as the crisis of debt defaults has not been contained. All focus now is on safety to US treasuries and fears of a stock market decline which is good for Mortgage Rates.  Any event that draws money from the equity markets into bonds is a good thing for US mortgage Rates.  US stock markets will suffer as the euro currency falls against the dollar, investors will be leery of buying US equities as the dollar strengthening takes away buying from European and foreign investors in general.

Tuesday, May 4

March Pending Home Sales increased 5.3% from February, and were 21% higher than one year ago at this time.  Home sales results seem to have little effect on Mortgage Rates.

Monday, May 3

The EU and IMF finance ministers approved the unprecedented bailout for Greece after a week that saw the country’s fiscal crisis spread to Portugal and Spain.

Other News that could effect Mortgage Rates:

• B of A agrees to cut loan amounts for underwater borrowers.  National Mortgage News

• Mortgage Brokers are the cheapest conduit to bring loans to market” according to FHA Commissioner DAVID STEVENS.  TBWS

…Back in action

IT has been some time. I myself had to find some footing inthis volitale market. Although, I never left (because I’ve continuially been watching), I decided to share my continue thriving market watch, share news and update those on information necessary to make informed decisions in todays market…

…on an inside note, with so many changes and mortgatge loans getting a bad wrap, being snowballed in these shotty banking activities, I did step away fro the chaos. However; now morre than ever is the opportunity and the need for the relevant and “in the know” information is evident daily.

Mortgage Rate Update 09-01-2008

There are five relevant economic reports scheduled for release this week, but they are being posted over four days because the markets were closed today in observance of the Labor Day holiday.

The first piece of data this week comes tomorrow morning with the release of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index at 10:00 AM ET. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and is expected to show a decline from last month’s reading of 50.0 to 49.5 in August. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed manufacturers felt business improved during the month than those who felt it worsened. An increase in the index would probably cause a rally in the stock markets and lead to mortgage rates rising tomorrow, while a reading below 49.5 should lead to lower rates.

The second report of the week is July’s Factory Orders data Wednesday morning. This report measures manufacturing sector strength and is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders, but includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This data is expected to show a 0.4% increase in new orders. A smaller than expected rise should lead to lower mortgage rates Wednesday.

Also scheduled for release is the Wednesday afternoon Federal Reserve release of its Beige Book report. This report details current economic conditions in the U.S. by region. It is believed to be a key source of data when the Fed meets for their FOMC meetings. It is usually released approximately two weeks prior to each FOMC meeting. If the 2:00 PM ET release reveals any significant surprises, we may see movement in the markets and mortgage pricing as analysts adjust their theories on the Fed’s next interest rate move. Most likely though, it will be a non-event and will not lead to a change in mortgage rates.

Thursday morning brings us the revision to the 2nd Quarter Productivity numbers, which measures employee productivity in the workplace. It is expected to show an upward change from the previous estimate of a 2.2% annual pace. Forecasts are currently calling for a reading of 2.9%, which would be good news for the bond market and possibly lead to slightly lower mortgage rates Thursday morning.

The big news of the week comes Friday morning. The Labor Department will post the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and average hourly earnings for August early Friday. The ideal scenario for the bond market and mortgage rates is rising unemployment, a smaller than expected rise in new payrolls and earnings to remain unchanged. If we are that fortunate, I expect to see mortgage rates drop considerably Friday morning. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate remain at 5.7% and 70,000 jobs lost in the month. Weaker then expected readings would be very good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Overall, I expect to see the most movement in rates Friday, but Tuesday should also be fairly active. I am holding the short-term lock recommendations for the time being as there still seems to be plenty of profit taking opportunities for traders if they choose to do so. This could lead to a spike in mortgage rates if traders sell holdings to capture those gains. This does not mean that I think rates will necessarily move higher. It means that I feel the risk versus the potential reward of continuing to float an interest rate is leaning heavily towards the risky side. Accordingly, locking seems to be the prudent position at this time.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Mortgage Market Rate Update April 29, 2008

Where We’ve been:
Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite a stronger than expected economic reading. The stock markets are showing early losses with the Dow down 50 points and the Nasdaq down 9 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which with yesterday’s late strength should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point.

The Conference Board gave us April’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) late this morning, revealing a stronger than expected reading of 62.3. However, an upward revision to March’s reading has actually worked favorably for bonds. The difference between forecasts and the previous March reading is extremely close to the difference between today’s reading and the revised March reading. This means that even though confidence was a little higher than thought in March, it dropped as much as it was expected to in April. The result is little impact on bond trading or mortgage rates.

Where We’re At:
Tomorrow is going to be a very interesting day as brings us the release of two important reports along with the FOMC meeting results. The first is the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is arguably the single most important report that we see on a regular basis. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth or contraction. I expect this report to cause major movement in the financial markets tomorrow and therefore the mortgage market also. Analysts are expecting to see output at an annual rate of 0.5%. A smaller increase would be ideal for mortgage rates a sit would fuel recession concerns. But, a larger increase would almost certainly cause inflation concerns in the bond market that would push mortgage rates higher tomorrow morning.

The next report of the day is the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. This gives us a measurement of wage-inflation. If it shows a large increase, we may see inflation concerns cause the bond market to fall and mortgage rates to rise. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are showing a rise of 0.8%.

Where we’re Going:
This week’s FOMC meeting will began today but will not adjourn until tomorrow afternoon. It will likely adjourn with an announcement of another rate cut to key short term interest rates. Just how much of a reduction is open for debate. Look for another round of volatility following the 2:15 PM ET post-meeting statement.

Forecast:
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… This is only an opinion of what one may do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

If rates should fall lower or we revert to a recommendation to float, you’ll find out about it here at The Property Tip. So check back and check back often!